The error of confirmation (IM 825)

Our past experiences shape the way we think about the future. This can be useful, because experience helps us recognize patterns, avoid repeated mistakes, and make faster decisions. But experience can also mislead us when we begin to treat the past as proof of what must happen next. That is where confirmation becomes an error.

We often look at what has already happened and assume it will continue in the same way. We use memory as certainty. We tell ourselves, “This is how it always goes,” and then interpret new situations through that old frame. But the world is dynamic. Conditions change, people change, systems change, and timing changes. What once seemed reliable may no longer apply.

This is why past experience should inform us, but not imprison us. It is one source of insight, not a final authority. When we rely too heavily on what we already believe, we stop paying close attention to what is actually happening in front of us. We begin to notice only the evidence that supports our old conclusions and ignore the signals that reality is changing.

A wiser approach is to treat the past as guidance rather than destiny. Experience matters, but so does openness. To think clearly, we must allow new evidence to correct old assumptions. Otherwise, what once helped us learn can quietly become the reason we stop learning.