Underestimating uncertainty (IM 836)

It is a human nature that we overestimate what we know and underestimate the uncertainty. We always tend to underestimate the uncertain events.

We just can't predict. We humans are so bad at prediction. None of us predicted the likelihood of computers 40 years ago, the internet 20 years ago, Tesla 10 years ago and the examples goes on and on. There is a huge difference between what we actually know and what we we think we know. This has increased the likelihood of prediction that has harmed us in many events.

Our ability to predict the future by underestimating uncertainty increases the probability of unpredicted implying the greater and greater role of unpredicted.